ChaosHunter ®是一個獨立的軟體工具,旨在產生可讀的公式,您的數字數據模型的應用如下:
● 對金融市場生產買入/賣出信號
● 預測未來價值的時間序列,包括市場價格
● 建立科學數據模型
● 建立企業財務或銷售數據模型
● 預測實驗的結果等等
ChaosHunter要求您從電子表格或數據源輸入歷史文本文件或樣本數據。然後您需要選擇算術類別和您想使用的ChaosHunter的其他數學函數,之後它會產生的數值公式,讓您可以閱讀、理解、利用,甚至對外出售。ChaosHunter可用功能還包括神經網絡和混沌函數。
由ChaosHunter公式所產生的買入/賣出信號,可以被轉移到許多流行的交易平台,它使您能夠將您的模型與貿易數字的經紀公司。我們現在可以利用已經開發完成的界面,配合以下的平台就能讓您更輕鬆轉換ChaosHunter模型:
● NeuroShell® Trader Professional
● NeuroShell® DayTrader Professional
● Interactive Brokers Trader Workstation
● TradeStation®
● NinjaTrader®
● MetaTrader 4
● Wealth-Lab Pro®
● eSignal®
● Microsoft® Excel
Science and Trade Modeling
The ChaosHunter works by evolving formulas from basic building blocks - "atomic" functions like add, subtract, multiply, divide, sine, cosine, square root, etc. The user selects which of these functions will be in the pool of available functions, and the ChaosHunter evolves combinations that continually get better at solving the problem.
Solving the problem can mean predicting or classifying a time series for business and science users (primarily), or it can mean generating buy/sell signals for trading. Since the formulas that get generated are usually not esoteric like neural network formulas, you can show them to your boss, modify them, and insert them into other programs.
The ChaosHunter's atomic function set contains simple polynomials (e.g. a2 + b2), neurons, boolean functions (AND, OR, NOT), and many more. The neuron functions (if chosen) can combine to form unique neural net structures.
For our science and business users, you get models that have readable, understandable formulas to model the data. If the data is time series, it builds recurrent formulas necessary for most definitions of chaotic functions. Although it mostly predicts, you can classify as well if there are two classes, one of which can be described by positive numbers and the other by negative numbers.
The trading models it builds can be used standalone or in conjunction with NeuroShell Trader Professional or DayTrader Professional, and they are capable of investigating chaotic time series.
Traders can also fire the trading models the ChaosHunter makes from any number of trading products that you may have purchased before you found out how good NeuroShell Trader Professional is. The reason is that ChaosHunter makes formulas that can most likely be inserted into many of these systems. So you build the model (formula) based on text files exported from NeuroShell Trader or these other systems, then use the model in real time somewhere else. Of course, we have a much easier way to insert the models into NeuroShell...
DTREG 是一款完美的建模工具,適用於商業建模或建立多種醫學資料模型,例如性別、人種、婚姻狀況等! 從一組數據值中提取有用信息的過程被稱為「數據挖掘」(data mining)。這些數據可以用來創建模型並做出預測。目前的技術已經發展出許多預測模型,而如何選擇和應用最好的模型則是一種藝術。
DTREG實現強大的已開發預測建模方法。你可以使用決策樹模型、支援向量機(Support Vector Machine, SVM)、基因表示規劃法(Gene Expression Programming)、符號回歸(Symbolic Regression),K-means 分群法(k-means clustering)、判別分析法(discriminant analysis)、線性回歸(Linear Regression models)和(Logistic Regression models)。DTREG也可以進行時間序列分析和預測。
Classification and Regression Trees. DTREG can build Classification Trees where the target variable being predicted is categorical and Regression Trees where the target variable is continuous like income or sales volume.
DTREG 提供多種強大的預測建模
Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks
Probabilistic Neural Networks
General Regression Neural Networks
RBF Neural Networks
GMDH Polynomial Neural Networks
Cascade Correlation Neural Networks
Support Vector Machine (SVM)
Gene Expression Programming - Symbolic Regression
Decision Trees
TreeBoost — Boosted Decision Trees
Decision Tree Forests
K-Means Clustering
Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA)
Linear Regression
Logistic Regression
Crystal Ball 是一套與工作表格完美結合的套裝軟體,運用蒙地卡羅模擬與各種模型做出預測分析與最優化解。Crystal Ball被廣泛的運用在各個不同的領域,例如財務分析、製造業、能源運用、醫療生技等。針對不同的用戶群,Crystal Ball擁有廣泛的應用功能,包括財務風險分析、資產評估、財務工程、六標準差、投資組合分析、成本預估、專案管理等。
Crystal Ball是一個容易使用的模擬程式,它可以在Microsoft Excel內幫助您分析風險和不確定的關聯。
Oracle Crystal Ball is the leading spreadsheet-based application suite for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to reach your objectives and gain a competitive edge under even the most uncertain market conditions.
命名緣由,1981年,People Express Airlines 航空公司興起並成為航空史傳奇,到1986年初,People Express Airlines 成長為美國世界第五大航空公司,每年平均收入為10億美元。其創新的管理模式和結構,被譽為未來的浪潮,在世界各地的航空公司都跟近模仿。但到1986年九月,People Express Airlines幾近破產,在最後一分鐘由Texas Air所收購。
甚麼原因導致問題?
The People Express Management Flight Simulator 軟體幫助您更了解您的飛行公司。此軟體提供了飛行模擬系統,您可以全程模擬指揮公司和飛行員進行模擬飛行,以檢驗飛行的成敗。您還可以模擬策略和操作是否可行,並得到以往模擬的反饋意見。軟體也幫您決定企業發展速度,產品價格,和市場廣告強度等事項。
您可以決定如何快速成長,如何設定價格,如何積極做廣告。您的僱用政策會影響士氣,生產力和營業額,您的營銷工作將形成需求的增長,您的競爭對手就會反擊。你可能會破產,也可能成長為主導的產業。這是沒有輸贏的。
模擬器的目的是讓您深入了解該個案所提出的問題; 使用圖例說明在統籌運作中的困難度和發展中的戰略市場,並了解其中一個動態互連公司的市場及競爭對手。
飛行模擬器就像是一個實驗室,您可以有系統地探討不同的策略的後果會不會危及企業的真正財富。此模擬器成功用於教育管理和Sloan School of Management at MIT的培訓,London Business School等多所大學和公司。從計算的觀點來看這是非常容易使用的,但它確實是受益於便利的個人技術和經營戰略的知識。
該模擬器可用於在戰略,運營,人力資源管理,組織行為學等課程,及模擬和業務研究。它有效的介紹管理學原理,特別有價值的是它整合了各種管理學科的商學院,管理培訓生和一般商業觀眾。
這種流行的管理飛行模擬器由美國麻省理工學院教授John Sterman 現在可以和Windws 95以上的操作系統兼容使用,除了得益於一個"Game Notepad",使用戶能夠輕鬆地記錄他們的結果和一個所有公共變量便於分析的附加表。
特色
Feature List
DECISIONS
Six decisions: Aircraft purchases, Fares charged, marketing as a fraction of revenue, hiring and target service scope
Teams choose when to run forward and the simulation runs forward one quarter with each step, or teams can choose to repeat decisions over several quarters
REPORTS
Seven reports showing relevant end of quarter financial and operational data
Summary report | Breakeven analysis | Capacity and load | Employees | Financial report | Market research | Stock price and earnings
GRAPHS
A range of 19 graphs showing the history of key data items. Additionally, any item appearing in a table can be represented as a graph.
TABLE DATA
Seven tables showing the history of financial and service data shown in the reports. Download data to CSV for spreadsheet analysis.
TABLE OF USER DECISIONS
Makes it easy to keep track of your actions.
TABLE OF ALL PUBLIC VARIABLES
Analysis of game results is made easy with this additional feature. Results are presented in the same order as the reports / tables but can be downloaded in CSV format for opening in a spreadsheet so can be re-ordered to enable straightforward analys...